Jan 17, 2011

CNU Professor to Speak at 2011 Economic Forecasting Event

(Newport News, Va.) - Dr. Thomas Hall, associate professor of economics and finance at Christopher Newport University will make a public presentation this Wednesday, January 19, concerning the economic outlook for 2011. Dr. Hall will participate as a panelist along with Dr. Vinod Agarwal of Old Dominion University, and Mr. John Canally of LPL Financial Research.  Dr. Agarwal is known for his work on the Hampton Roads economy in conjunction with the Economic Forecasting Project at ODU’s College of Business and Public Administration.  Mr. Canally plays an integral role in the development and articulation of LPL Financial’s market and investment strategies, and has been interviewed and quoted by such national outlets as National Public Radio's "Marketplace," Time magazine, CNBC and Bloomberg TV.

Dr. Hall will present results from two analytical exercises.  First, he considered the past behavior of stock indices such as the S&P 500 or the 30 firms that compose the Dow Jones Industrial Index.  “The NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) pronounced the trough of national economic performance as taking place in June 2009.  That means we are in month 19 of the recovery, and will be in month 30 by the end of the year.  How has the stock market generally performed during months 19-30 of past recoveries?  That is what we’ll be discussing on Wednesday night.”

Second, Dr. Hall will reveal results of an analysis of the structure of previous economic recoveries.  “There have only been two full business cycles in recent memory (since 1985), so we don’t have a lot to go on.  But, we can do sector-by-sector analysis of those two recoveries to gain some limited insight as to how the existing recovery might take shape.  This may have clear implications for the local economy, given the heavy concentration of Hampton Roads in certain sectors such as shipping and tourism.” 

Dr. Hall cautioned that investment forecasting is not an exact science, saying, “There are a number of reasons to expect that stock prices won’t behave with consistency from one recession to another.  But for investors that don’t have a crystal ball, past performance may be the best indicator of future results.  This is not a guarantee, just a glimpse into the possibilities that investors face in the 19th through 30th months of a recovery.”

The January 19 event will take place at 6 p.m. in the Pacific Fine Arts Center (next to The Mariners’ Museum and across the street from CNU) and is free and open to the public.  Attendees are requested to RSVP at (757) 599-9111.  The panel discussion is being sponsored by Lions Bridge Financial, whose president is Jayne Di Vincenzo.  For more information, contact Dr. Thomas Hall at thomas.hall@cnu.edu.

A four-year public university in Newport News, Virginia, Christopher Newport University enrolls 5,000 students in rigorous academic programs in the liberal arts and sciences through the College of Arts and Humanities, the College of Natural and Behavioral Sciences, and the College of Social Sciences, including the Luter School of Business. CNU offers great teaching and small class sizes with an emphasis on leadership, civic engagement and honor.

Media Contact:
Lori Jacobs
Director of Public Relations

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