October 7, 2024

Harris Leads Trump by 11 points Among Virginia Likely Voters; Kaine Leads Cao by 20 points in U.S. Senate Contest

Summary of Key Findings

1. Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump by 11 points, 52% to 41% among Virginia likely voters; 4% remain undecided, while 3% say they will vote for someone else.
2. Harris’ lead over Trump is built on an advantage among women (+20), Independents (+15), Black voters (+54) and college educated voters (+20); Trump receives support from Republican voters (94%), with a very narrow lead among white voters (48% to 47%).
3. In the U.S. Senate race, Democrat Tim Kaine leads Republican Hung Cao by 20 pints among Virginia likely voters, 55% to 35%; 8% say they are undecided and 2% say they will vote for someone else.
4. Top of mind issues for Virginia likely voters include inflation and the economy (29%), threats to democracy (18%), immigration (11%), and abortion (10%).
5. Virginia likely voters say Harris would do a better job than Trump handling an array of policy issues with a narrow lead on inflation and the economy (49% to 48%), a moderate advantage on threats to democracy (54% to 40%) and a large advantage on abortion (60% to 32%), racial inequality (61% to 31%) and climate change (61% to 29%); Trump has a narrow advantage over Harris on handling immigration (49% to 48%).

Summary and Background: Early voting is well underway in the Commonwealth of Virginia and Election Day is just a month away on Tuesday November 5th. We surveyed Virginia likely voters on vote choice for president and the U.S. Senate, in addition to policy issues. Among those surveyed, 14% have already cast their ballot, as early voting began on September 20th in the Commonwealth. While Virginia tends to be a two-party competitive state for state executive and legislative races, the Commonwealth has not voted for a Republican presidential candidate since George W. Bush won the state in 2004. Our survey suggests Virginia is likely to continue the trend of voting blue in presidential races.

Enthusiasm and Early Vote: Virginia likely voters are fairly enthusiastic to vote in the elections with 82% indicating they are either very enthusiastic (64%) or somewhat enthusiastic (18%). Democratic voters have an enthusiasm advantage with 75% indicating they are very enthusiastic compared to 68% of Republicans and 46% of Independents.

While most Virginia likely voters surveyed have yet to cast their ballots, a higher percentage of Democrats say they have voted when compared to Republicans and Independents (22% to 11% to 9%). In past elections Democrats have been more likely to early vote than Republicans, though Governor Youngkin made a push in the 2022 General Assembly elections for Republicans to vote early.

Favorability ratings for President, Vice President, and U.S. Senate candidates: We ask Virginia likely voters whether they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the presidential candidates, their running mates, and the candidates running for U.S. Senate in Virginia.

Overall, Vice President Kamala Harris has a +9 favorability rating (51% to 42%) with 8% indicating they have no opinion/don’t know. President Trump is underwater with a -22 favorability rating (36% to 58%); 6% say no opinion/don’t know.

Harris’ running-mate Governor Tim Walz has a +12 favorability rating (47% to 35%), with 19% indicating no opinion/don’t know. Trump’s running mate Senator J.D. Vance has a –16 favorability rating at 34 to 50% with 16% indicating no opinion/don’t know.

Incumbent Senator Tim Kaine has a +23 favorability rating (53% to 30%) with 17% saying no opinion/don’t know. Republican candidate Hung Cao has an even favorability rating (23% to 23%); however, he is less well known with a majority of likely voters indicating no opinion/don’t know (54%).

Presidential Vote Choice: Among Virginia likely voters Harris leads Trump by 11 points, 52% to 41%, with 4% saying they are undecided and 3% indicating they will vote for someone else.

Harris’ support is currently driven by Democratic voters (98%), Independents (49% to 34%), Black voters (70% to 16%), women (57% to 37%), voters aged 18-44 (52% to 38%), and voters with college degrees (57% to 37%).

Trump’s support within his own party sits at 94% and he holds a narrow lead among white voters (48% to 47%).

U.S. Senate Vote Choice: Incumbent Democratic Senator Tim Kaine enjoys a 20-point lead among Virginia likely voters against Republican Hung Cao (55% to 35%); 8% remain undecided, while 2% say they will vote for someone else.

Kaine has a fairly large advantage among Independents (+13), women (+30), Black voters (+69), and voters with a college degree (+28). Cao’s support comes primarily from fellow Republicans at 72%, though 16% remain undecided and 11% say they will vote for Kaine.

Key issues: Virginia likely voters are asked which issue is top of mind when they think about voting in the fall elections. 29% say inflation and the economy, followed by 18% who say threats to democracy, 11% immigration, and 10% abortion.

Top of mind issues vary by party with a vast majority of Republicans coalescing around inflation and the economy (39%), followed by immigration (24%), and foreign policy (6%). Top issues among Democrats include threats to democracy (31%), followed by abortion (16%), and inflation and the economy (12%). A majority of Independents say inflation and the economy (37%), followed by threats to democracy (19%), with the remaining closely split between immigration (8%), healthcare (7%), abortion (6%), and foreign policy (6%).

Handling of key issues: We also ask Virginia likely voters whether they think Donald Trump or Kamala Harris would do a better job handling a series of issues. Harris comes out ahead of Trump on seven of the eight issues we surveyed on including very narrowly for inflation and the economy (49% to 48%), a moderate amount for threats to democracy (54% to 40%) and gun violence (53% to 39%), and larger amounts for health care (58% to 35%), abortion (60% to 32%), climate change (61% to 29%), and racial inequality (61% to 31%). Trump has a narrow advantage over Harris on immigration (49% to 48%).

How the survey was conducted:

The results of this poll are based on 800 interviews of registered Virginia voters who are likely general election voters, including 211 on landline and 589 on cell phone, conducted Sept. 28 to Oct. 4, 2024. A likely general election voter is one who has voted in at least two of the last four general elections or is newly registered in the last 12 months and indicates they are enthusiastic and plan to vote in the upcoming November 5 elections. The margin of error for the whole survey is +/-4.4% at the 95% level of confidence. This means that if 50% of respondents indicate a topline view on an issue, we can be 95% confident that the population’s view on that issue is somewhere between 45.6% and 54.4%. The margin of error for subgroups may be higher. All error margins have been adjusted to account for the survey’s design effect, which is 1.6 in this survey. The design effect is a factor representing the survey’s deviation from a simple random sample and takes into account decreases in precision due to sample design and weighting procedures. In addition to sampling error, the other potential sources of error include non-response, question wording, and interviewer error. Percentages may not equal 100 due to rounding. Five callbacks were employed in the fielding process. Live calling was conducted by Dynata interviewers. The data reported here are weighted using an iterative weighting process on region, age, race, sex, and education to reflect as closely as possible the population of the Virginia November 5, 2024 electorate. Parameters for the weights used in this survey come from the 2020 Census, the 2023 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates, and 2016 and 2020 exit polls.