October 23, 2024

Kiggans Holds a Razor Thin 1-point Lead over Cotter Smasal as Election Day Approaches in Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District

Summary of Key Findings

1. Rep. Kiggans leads Cotter Smasal by 1-point, 46% to 45% among VA-2 likely voters; 8% remain undecided in the race. Kiggans’ lead has dropped from our mid-September survey when she led Cotter Smasal by 5 points.
2. Rep. Kiggans’ lead over Cotter Smasal is built on an advantage among Independents (+4), men (+14), white voters (+24) and voters without a college degree (+20); Cotter Smasal leads among women (+13), Black voters (+74), and college educated voters (+11).
3. Kiggans has a +3 favorability rating (43% to 40%) and Cotter Smasal’s favorability is +4 (35% to 31%); 1 in 3 VA-2 likely voters (33%) say they have no opinion or don't know enough to say for Cotter Smasal.
4. Among VA-2 likely voters, Vice President Harris leads President Trump by 2 points, while Senator Kaine holds a 7-point lead over Republican Hung Cao.
5. Top of mind issues for likely voters are inflation and the economy (30%), threats to democracy (20%), immigration (13%), and abortion (10%).
6. VA-2 likely voters trust Kiggans more to handle military and veteran’s issues (46% to 42%); they trust Cotter Smasal more to handle reproductive rights (49% to 35%).

Background: With just under two weeks to go until Election Day, Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District looks very competitive. VA-2 is anchored by Virginia Beach and encompasses Chesapeake, Suffolk, Isle of Wight and Virginia’s eastern shore. The district is also home to the largest naval base in the United States, and both candidates are military veterans. VA-2 is one of two competitive congressional races in the Commonwealth according to Sabato’s Crystal Ball, who gives this seat a “lean Republican” rating. The district was redrawn after the 2020 census, shifting the partisan lean of the district somewhat to the right in its new form. Despite its conservative lean, the district voted for President Joe Biden by 2 points in 2020. Just a year later, Governor Glenn Youngkin won the district by 11 points in 2021. In 2022, Jen Kiggans won by 3 points against incumbent Elaine Luria. Given the potential for this district to swing, Democrats have targeted this district as a potential flip. Since our last poll of this race, fielded in early to mid-September, the race has tightened as partisans have come home to their respective candidates and more is known about the candidates.

Enthusiasm and Early Voting: VA-2 likely voters are enthusiastic about voting in the elections with 86% indicating they are either very enthusiastic (67%) or somewhat enthusiastic (19%). Democratic voters show a higher intensity of enthusiasm with 77% saying they are very enthusiastic compared to 69% of Republicans and 59% of Independents. Among those surveyed, 31% have already cast their ballot; early voting began on September 20th in the Commonwealth.

Favorability ratings for President, Vice President, and VA-2 candidates: We asked VA-2 likely voters whether they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the presidential candidates, their running mates, and the candidates running in Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District.

Overall, Vice President Kamala Harris has a -2 favorability rating (46% favorable to 48% unfavorable), with 6% indicating they have no opinion/don’t know. President Trump is further underwater relative to Harris with a -11 favorability rating (42% favorable to 53% unfavorable); 5% say no opinion/don’t know.

Harris’ running-mate Governor Tim Walz has a -2 favorability rating (41% favorable to 43% unfavorable); 16% say no opinion/don’t know. Trump’s running mate Senator J.D. Vance has a -1 favorability (43% favorable to 44% unfavorable); 13% indicate no opinion/don’t know.

Incumbent Congresswoman Jen Kiggans has a +3 favorability rating (43% to 40%), down slightly from our mid-September survey (+5); 18% say no opinion/don’t know. Cotter Smasal has a +4 favorability rating (35% to 31%); 1 in 3 VA-2 likely voters say they have no opinion/don’t know (33%). Cotter Smasal is more well known among Virginia likely voters relative to our last survey where 61% gave no opinion/don’t know responses.

VA District 2 Vote Choice: Kiggans holds a narrow 1-point lead over Cotter Smasal among VA-2 likely voters, down from a 5-point lead in our September survey; 8% say they are undecided/don’t know. Kiggans’ support is currently driven by Republican voters (89% to 6%), Independents (46% to 42%), male voters (52% to 38%), white voters (58% to 34%), and voters without college degrees (55% to 35%).

Cotter Smasal’s support comes primarily from Democrats (90% to 2%), women (52% to 39%), Black voters (81% to 7%), and college educated voters (51% to 40%).

Since Wason’s September survey, Cotter Smasal has gained significant ground among Independents; Kiggans held a +20 point advantage previously and now holds a 4-point lead among Independents. While Kiggans maintains 46% of Independents in both surveys, Cotter Smasal’s share grew from 26% to 42%.

Presidential and U.S. Senate Contests: Among VA-2 likely voters, Harris leads Trump by 2 points, 47% to 45%; 8% say undecided/don’t know. In Wason’s September survey, the two presidential candidates were tied among VA-2 likely voters.

Incumbent Senator Tim Kaine holds a 7-point lead against his opponent Republican Hung Cao (50% to 43%), among VA-2 likely voters. Over the last month, Cao has shored up support within his own party with 89% of Republicans backing him in the current survey compared to 64% in mid-September.

Key issues: VA-2 likely voters were asked which issue is top of mind when they think about voting in the fall elections. Among all likely voters, 30% say inflation and the economy, 20% threats to democracy, 13% immigration, and 10% say abortion. While inflation and the economy has maintained its top spot among likely voters since our last survey, threats to democracy rose considerably over the last month from 12% to 20%.

Top of mind issues vary by party with a vast majority of Republicans coalescing around inflation and the economy (47%), followed by immigration (28%), and threats to democracy (6%). Top issues among Democrats include threats to democracy (30%), followed by abortion (19%), and inflation and the economy (12%). A majority of Independents say inflation and the economy (34%), followed by threats to democracy (23%), immigration (11%), and abortion (7%).

Trust in VA-2 candidates on issues: Both VA-2 candidates have emphasized military and veteran’s issues throughout the campaign given the heavy military presence in the district, and that both candidates are veterans themselves. Cotter Smasal has also emphasized reproductive rights. Given the prominence of these issues, we ask VA-2 likely voters which candidate they trust more to handle military and veteran concerns and reproductive rights.

Overall, VA-2 likely voters show greater trust in Kiggans to handle military issues (46% to 42%). These numbers have tightened significantly over the last month; Kiggans led Cotter Smasal on this question 48% to 32% in mid-September.

On reproductive rights, VA-2 likely voters trust Cotter Smasal to handle this issue more than Kiggans (49% to 35%). Trust in Kiggans on reproductive rights stayed at 35% over the last month, while trust in Cotter Smasal on this issue increased from 42% to 49%.

How the survey was conducted:

The results of this poll are based on 800 interviews of registered second congressional district voters who are likely general election voters, including 157 on landline and 643 on cell phone, conducted Oct. 11-20, 2024. A likely general election voter is one who has voted in at least two of the last four general elections or is newly registered in the last 12 months and indicates they are enthusiastic and plan to vote in the upcoming November 5 elections. The margin of error for the whole survey is +/-3.9% at the 95% level of confidence. This means that if 50% of respondents indicate a topline view on an issue, we can be 95% confident that the population’s view on that issue is somewhere between 46.1% and 53.9%. The margin of error for subgroups may be higher. All error margins have been adjusted to account for the survey’s design effect, which is 1.3 in this survey. The design effect is a factor representing the survey’s deviation from a simple random sample and takes into account decreases in precision due to sample design and weighting procedures. In addition to sampling error, the other potential sources of error include non-response, question wording, and interviewer error. Percentages may not equal 100 due to rounding. Five callbacks were employed in the fielding process. Live calling was conducted by Dynata interviewers. The data reported here are weighted using an iterative weighting process on city/county, age, race, sex, and education to reflect as closely as possible the population of the second congressional district’s November 5, 2024 electorate. Parameters for the weights used in this survey come from the 2020 Census and the 2023 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates.