November 1, 2024

Christopher Newport University Students Weigh in on the 2024 Elections on Vote Choice and Policy Issues; Harris Leads Trump by 20 points Among CNU Students

Summary of Key Findings

1. A large majority of CNU students intend to vote in the 2024 elections with 81% saying they definitely will vote and 13% saying they probably will. They are also fairly enthusiastic about voting with 78% saying they are either very enthusiastic or somewhat enthusiastic about voting in the upcoming elections.
2. On their vote intentions for U.S. President, Harris leads Trump by 20 points (53% to 33%) among CNU students; 10% say they are undecided while 4% say they will vote for someone else. There is a sizeable gender gap for presidential vote choice with women supporting Harris by 31 points (60% to 29%), while Harris has a 5-point advantage among men (45% to 40%).
3. We ask CNU students whether they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the presidential candidates and their running mates. Former President Trump is underwater with a – 38 favorability rating (27% favorable to 65% unfavorable; 8% no opinion). Vice President Harris has a +8 favorability rating (49% favorable to 41% unfavorable; 10% no opinion). Governor Walz has a +25 favorability rating (47% favorable to 22% unfavorable; 32% say no opinion). Senator J.D. Vance has a -17 favorability rating (29% favorable to 46% unfavorable; 25% say no opinion).
4. In Virginia’s U.S. Senate contest, Incumbent Democrat Tim Kaine leads Republican Hung Cao by 19 points (46% to 27%) among CNU students; 22% remained undecided.
5. Top of mind issues for CNU students include inflation and the economy (23%), abortion (19%), threats to democracy (15%), and climate change (8%). Top issues vary significantly by partisanship and gender. Republican’s top issues include inflation and the economy (50%), immigration (12%), and abortion (7%), while Democrat’s top issues include abortion (31%), threats to democracy (23%), and climate change (10%). For Independents, their top issues include inflation and the economy (24%), abortion (15%), and threats to democracy (15%). The top issues for women include abortion (31%), inflation and the economy (19%), and threats to democracy (13%). Top issues for men include inflation and the economy (30%), threats to democracy (17%), and climate change (11%).
6. A majority of CNU students say that democracy in the U.S. could be at risk depending on who wins the 2024 presidential election (54%). 19% say that Democracy in the U.S. is already so seriously broken that it doesn’t matter who wins the presidential election, while 26% say our democracy is strong enough to withstand the outcome.
7. CNU students were asked to indicate the level of priority issues should receive by Congress and the president. A majority of students give the following issues the highest level of priority: strengthening the nation’s economy (61% top priority); reducing deaths from gun violence (60% top priority), unifying the country (60% top priority), addressing reproductive rights (57% top priority), improving the K-12 education system (56% top priority), and reducing health care cost (53% top priority).
8. CNU students say Harris will do a better job than Trump in handling 6 of 7 policy issues asked about in the survey including climate change (78% to 19%), immigration (50% to 47%), preserving democracy (62% to 34%), gun violence (64% to 34%), abortion (70% to 27%), and health care (66% to 31%). CNU students say Trump will do a better job handling the economy relative to Harris (54% to 42%).
9. Most CNU students express personal worry about climate change (39% say very worried; 35% say somewhat worried). On energy policy, CNU students are supportive of several policies aimed at addressing climate change including government investment in renewable energy (88% support/strongly support), a carbon cap and trade program (82% support/strongly support), funding for state and local governments to adapt to climate change (79% support/strongly support), providing incentives for electric vehicle purchases (61% support/strongly support), and a carbon tax on fossil fuel companies (72% support/strongly support). A narrow majority of students oppose expanding offshore oil and gas drilling in the US (53% oppose/strongly oppose), though a small majority support expanding U.S. natural gas exports (55% support/ strongly support), which would encourage continued fossil fuel extraction.
10. CNU students are concerned about the economy with 31% saying current economic conditions are poor, 40% say only fair, 21% say good, and 5% say excellent. On economic policy, a majority of CNU students favor policies proposed by Vice President Harris including raising taxes for large businesses (75% support/strongly support), providing a tax cut for individuals making less than $400,000 a year (77% support/strongly support), down-payment assistance for first time homebuyers (71% support/strongly support), raising the federal minimum wage to $15 an hour (72% support/strongly support). They also support a policy proposed by both Harris and Trump which would end taxes on tipped wages (82% support/strongly support). A majority oppose two policies proposed by former President Trump including providing a tax cut for individuals making more than $400,000 a year (70% oppose/strongly oppose) and lowering taxes for large businesses and corporations (67% oppose/strongly oppose).
11. For immigration policy, a majority of CNU students support pathways to citizenship for undocumented immigrants generally (76% support/strongly support) and “dreamers” specifically, who are those brought to this country as children by their parents (86% support/strongly support). A majority of students also show support for enhancing border security, a policy supported by both Harris and Trump (63% support/strongly support). On policies favored by Trump, a majority of CNU students show opposition including placing stricter limits on LEGAL immigration (62% oppose/strongly oppose), and a large-scale effort to deport undocumented immigrants in the U.S. (55% oppose/strongly oppose to 40% support/strongly support).
12. On abortion, a large majority of CNU students oppose/strongly oppose a national abortion ban (75%), while a majority support restoring Roe v. Wade through national legislation (68% support/strongly support). A majority of CNU students say a pregnant person should be able to obtain an abortion if a fetal abnormality would prevent the child from surviving outside the womb (79% should to 15% should not), if the person’s health is endangered by the pregnancy (88% should to 7% should not), if the person became pregnant as the result of rape or incest (84% should to 10% should not), and if the person does not want to be pregnant for any reason (59% should to 35% should not).
13. In relation to higher education, CNU students show concern over making enough money to earn a good living (56% are very concerned; 27% somewhat concerned), student loan debt (31% very concerned; 32% somewhat concerned), and having the skills to get a good job (26% very concerned; 36% somewhat concerned). On policy, a majority of CNU students support allowing students to refinance outstanding loan debt at a lower interest rate (83% support/strongly support), some student loan forgiveness for those earning less than $100,000 a year (72% support/strongly support), and making community college tuition free (72% support/strongly support). CNU students are split on making public colleges and universities tuition-free for all income levels (49% support/ strongly support to 45% oppose/strongly oppose; 5% no response).
14. On gun policy, a majority of CNU students support banning assault-style weapons (64% support/strongly support), requiring gun owners to lock up their firearms if children are in the home (85% support/strongly support), and requiring background checks for all firearm sales and transfers (89% support/strongly support). A majority of CNU students oppose allowing teachers to carry guns in K-12 schools (63% oppose/ strongly oppose), and allowing people to carry concealed guns in more places (54% oppose/strongly oppose). Finally, a majority of CNU students think it is more important to limit gun ownership to project public safety (58%) while 38% say it is more important to project the right of Americans to own guns.

Graphic Sampling

Q3: Thinking about the election for president… if the election were held TODAY would you vote for... If you are unsure, please indicate which candidate you are leaning toward right now.

Q4: And thinking about the election for U.S. Senate… if the election were held TODAY would you vote for… If you are unsure, please indicate which candidate you are leaning toward right now.

Q5: From the following list of issues, which is top of mind for you when you think about voting in the upcoming elections?

How the survey was conducted:

The results of this poll are based on 701 web-based responses from Christopher Newport University students conducted Oct. 8-28, 2024. The survey was written by the Wason Scholar survey committee in coordination with the Wason Research Director, Dr. Bromley-Trujillo. The survey was programmed in Qualtrics and disseminated to the CNU student population via email and through a QR code at CNU events. The margin of error for the whole survey is +/-3.6% at the 95% level of confidence. This means that if 50% of respondents indicate a topline view on an issue, we can be 95% confident that the population’s view on that issue is somewhere between 46.4% and 53.6%. The margin of error for subgroups may be higher. All error margins have been adjusted to account for the survey’s design effect, which is 1.04 in this survey. The design effect is a factor representing the survey’s deviation from a simple random sample and takes into account decreases in precision due to sample design and weighting procedures. In addition to sampling error, the other potential sources of error include non-response and question wording. Percentages may not equal 100 due to rounding. The data reported here are weighted using an iterative weighting process on race, ethnicity, and sex to reflect as closely as possible the population of CNU students.