January 16, 2025

Spanberger holds a 5-point lead over Winsome Earle-Sears in Virginia Governor’s Race with 16% undecided

Virginians Support: Amendments to State Constitution on Reproductive Rights and Felon Re-enfranchisement; Felony Homicide Charge for those Involved in a Drug Sale that Leads to Death; Limits on Data Center Location, Tax Incentives and Energy Usage; Using Surplus on Government Services; Letting Localities Determine K-12 Cell Phone Policies

Summary of Key Findings

1. A plurality of Virginians say the state is headed in the right direction (49% right, 11% mixed, 31% wrong), but are more pessimistic about the direction of the country (31% right, 6% mixed, 58% wrong).
2. In the governor’s race, Congresswoman Spanberger leads Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears by 5-points, 44% to 39%, though 16% remain undecided and another 2% say they will vote for someone else.
3. 53% of Virginians approve of the job Governor Youngkin is doing.
4. Looking at the Biden presidency, a plurality of Virginians feel Biden will turn out to have been worse than most as president (38%), while 25% say he was not as good as most. 35% say he was either better than most or one of the best.
5. Looking ahead to the Trump’s second term, a plurality of Virginians think Trump will be an unsuccessful president (36%), while 31% say it is too early to tell, and 31% say he will be a successful president.
6. Virginians overall say the following should be top priorities for the governor and General Assembly: improving K-12 education (70%), reducing health care costs (68%), and strengthening the state’s economy (65%).
7. A majority of Virginians support amending the state’s constitution to guarantee reproductive rights in the state, such as access to abortion and contraception (61%) and to allow felons that have completed their prison sentence to have their voting rights automatically restored upon release (63%).
8. Regarding the budget surplus, a plurality of Virginians say it should go primarily towards government services (46%). 40% say it should go towards a one-time tax rebate for individuals, with the remainder going toward government services, and 11% say it should go primarily towards long-term individual and corporate tax cuts.
9. Virginia likely voters support charging people involved in a drug sale that leads to a death with felony homicide (76% support/strongly support).
10. When it comes to data centers, Virginians support laws that would prohibit locating them within a mile of a national park, state park, or historically significant site (67% to 27%), requiring data center companies that receive state tax incentives to improve energy efficiency and reduce their energy consumption during peak demand (77% to 16%). A plurality supports the removal of state tax incentives used to encourage the building of data centers in the state (48% to 39%), while a majority oppose expanding state and local tax incentives to encourage more data centers (57% to 34%).
11. Virginians support a law that would require K-12 schools to have a cell phone usage policy but would allow localities to set their own specific rules about usage (75% support/strongly support).

Analysis summary: The Virginia General Assembly session is well underway in the Commonwealth after a slight delay due to a water crisis in Richmond. Lawmakers are working to address a range of policy issues and make budgetary decisions, many of which we cover in this survey of Virginia registered voters.

Virginia continues to be one of a relatively small set of states with divided government (12) with a Republican governor and a narrow Democratic majority in both chambers of the General Assembly. As such, most policy actions will require the parties to work together. That said, constitutional amendments do not require the governor’s signature, allowing the possibility for Democrats in the General Assembly to move forward on the first phase of that process.

According to our survey of Virginia registered voters, there are some areas where voters share some common ground, such as prioritizing K-12 education and reducing health care costs, charging individuals involved in a drug sale that leads to a death with felony homicide, and placing some limits on data centers. Republicans and Democrats are more divided on other policy issues such as constitutional amendments that would guarantee reproductive rights and restore felon voting rights upon release, and how to use the budget surplus.

We also ask Virginia registered voters to look ahead to the 2025 gubernatorial election by considering prominent candidates on each side of the political aisle, Republican Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears and former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger.

State of things: When asked about the direction of the Commonwealth, 49% say Virginia is headed in the right direction, while 31% say the wrong direction and 11% are mixed. This is slightly up from a year ago when 43% said the state was headed in the right direction. Governor Youngkin’s job approval sits at 53%, up 3 points from a year ago, while 33% indicate they disapprove and 15% say they don’t know.

Approval falls along partisan lines, with 87% of Republicans saying they approve of Governor Youngkin’s job performance, while 65% of Democrats disapprove; 54% of Independents say they approve.

Direction of the country: Virginia registered voters remain fairly pessimistic about the direction of the country. 31% say the United States is headed in the right direction (up 11 points from 2024). 58% say the country is headed in the wrong direction, while 6% are mixed and 6% say they don’t know.

Some of this pessimism comes through in Virginian’s views of the Biden presidency and their expectations of how Trump will perform in office. In evaluating Biden’s presidency most Virginians feel he was either not as good as most (25%) or definitely worse than most (38%). 28% indicate that he was better than most while 7% say he will turn out to have been one of the best presidents (7%).

Looking ahead to Trump’s second term, 36% of Virginians think Trump will be an unsuccessful president, while 31% say he will be successful and another 31% say it is too early to tell.

Governor’s race: Virginia will elect a new governor this year as Governor Youngkin is term-limited out. While other candidates may still enter the race, former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger and Lt. Governor Winsome Earle-Sears are currently the only declared candidates in the race. Among Virginia registered voters, Spanberger currently leads Earle-Sears by 5-points, though 16% of voters remain undecided and 2% indicate they will vote for someone else. Notably, a much larger proportion of Black voters are undecided relative to whites (24% to 12%), suggesting that both candidates will have to work hard to earn the Black vote. Independents are generally split with 37% supporting Spanberger to 35% for Earle-Sears. Partisans have started to line up behind their respective candidates with Spanberger receiving 95% support among Democrats and Earle-Sears getting support from 87% of Republicans. Spanberger does well among women (47% to 34%), younger voters (42% to 35%), and college educated voters (51% to 32%), while Earle-Sears does better among male voters (44% to 42%), and those without college degrees (44% to 39%).

Top priorities for the governor and General Assembly: Virginia registered voters were asked to indicate their level of priority for a series of policy issues including infrastructure, affordable housing, environmental protection, reducing crime, addressing gun violence, improving K-12 education, reducing healthcare costs, reducing childcare costs, strengthening the state’s economy, cutting taxes, and reproductive rights. Overall, Virginians say the following should be top priorities: 1. Improving K-12 education (70%), 2. Reducing healthcare costs (68%), and 3. Strengthening the state’s economy (65%).

Still, there is large variation based on partisanship. Independents, and Republicans. Republican’s top 3 priorities are reducing crime (81%), strengthening the state’s economy (76%), and K-12 education (71%). For Democrats they are protecting reproductive rights (80%), reducing healthcare costs (73%), and reducing gun violence (72%). Independent’s top priorities include K-12 education (73%), reducing healthcare costs (68%), and strengthening the state’s economy (69%).

Compared to a year ago, the issue that moved up the most in priority was reducing healthcare costs; last year 59% of Virginians said it should be a top priority compared to 68% this year.

Constitutional amendment proposals: The General Assembly is considering several constitutional amendments while in session including one that would guarantee reproductive rights in the state, such as access to contraception and abortion and another that would allow felons that have completed their prison sentence to have their voting rights automatically restored upon release. Virginians surveyed indicate support for both with 61% saying they support/strongly support amending the constitution to guarantee reproductive rights, while 63% support/strongly support felon re-enfranchisement after a completed prison sentence.

The proposed abortion amendment has a sizable partisan and racial gap. Democrats support/strongly support the amendment at 93% while 63% of Republicans oppose/strongly oppose it; 63% of Independents support the measure. 73% of Black Virginians support/strongly support the measure compared to 59% of whites.

On felon re-enfranchisement, the racial gap is even larger with 55% of whites indicating support compared to 85% of Blacks. Democrats are also more supportive at 83% support/strongly support compared to 42% of Republicans. 65% of Independents support/strongly support the measure.

Budget surplus usage: The governor and General Assembly have a budget surplus on their hands as they begin their legislative session. Party leaders and the governor have varying views about how that money should be spent with Governor Youngkin leaning towards tax cuts and education spending, while Democrats lean more towards education, childcare and other government service spending. Some have suggested a potential compromise proposal that could include a one-time tax rebate for individuals with the rest dedicated to government services. We ask Virginians which of these three proposals comes closest to their view on use of the surplus, even if none are exactly right.

A plurality of Virginians say the surplus should go primarily towards government services such as K-12 school spending, childcare and infrastructure (46%), while 40% favor a one-time tax rebate for individuals with the remainder going towards government services. 11% say the surplus should go primarily towards long-term individual and corporate tax cuts. Independents and Democrats favor the government services option at 59% and 51% respectively, while 50% of Republicans favor a one-time tax rebate plus government services.

Data centers: Data centers have been a hot topic in recent years as their numbers have grown significantly, particularly in Northern Virginia. We asked Virginians whether they would support or oppose a series of proposals related to data centers. A majority of Virginian registered voters support a law that would prohibit locating data centers within a mile of a national park, state park, or historically significant site (67%) and a law that would require data center companies receiving state tax incentives to improve energy efficiency and reduce their energy consumption during peak demand (77%). A plurality (48% to 39%) support the removal of state tax incentives used to encourage the building of data centers in the state, while a majority oppose the expansion of state and local tax incentives to encourage more data centers to locate in the state.

There are notable regional differences on data center attitudes with residents in Northern Virginia tending to favor limits on data centers at higher rates than other regions. Northern Virginians are also more strongly opposed to an expansion of tax incentives to encourage more data centers (64% NoVA, 57% Central, 52% Hampton Roads, 51% West/Southwest oppose).

Cell phone usage in K-12 public schools and drug sales: Governor Youngkin signed an executive order last year requiring Virginia K-12 schools to put in place a ban on student cell phone usage from bell to bell, including between classes, lunch, and recess. Some lawmakers have argued that while localities should be required to have a cell phone usage policy, they should be able to set their own specific rules on cell phone usage. A majority of Virginians support passing a law that would allow localities this discretion (75% support/strongly support).

One of Governor Youngkin’s policy priorities this session is to enact a law that would charge individuals involved in a drug sale that leads to a death with felony homicide, subject to a prison term of 5-40 years. A majority of Virginians support such a law (76% support/strongly support).

How the survey was conducted:

The results of this poll are based on 806 interviews of Virginia registered voters, including 188 on landline and 618 on cell phone, conducted Jan. 6 - Jan. 13, 2025. The margin of error for the whole survey is +/-3.6% at the 95% level of confidence. This means that if 50% of respondents indicate a topline view on an issue, we can be 95% confident that the population’s view on that issue is somewhere between 46.4% and 53.6%. The margin of error for subgroups may be higher. All error margins have been adjusted to account for the survey’s design effect, which is 1.1 in this survey. The design effect is a factor representing the survey’s deviation from a simple random sample and takes into account decreases in precision due to sample design and weighting procedures. Sub-samples have a higher margin of error. In addition to sampling error, the other potential sources of error include non-response, question wording, and interviewer error. Percentages may not equal 100 due to rounding. Live calling was conducted by trained interviewers at Dynata. Six callbacks were employed in the fielding process. The data reported here are weighted using an iterative weighting process on region, age, race, sex, and education to reflect as closely as possible the population of Virginia. Parameters for the weights used in this survey come from the 2020 Census and the 2023 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates.