September 18, 2025

In the Race for Governor Spanberger Leads Earle Sears by 12 Points Among Virginia Likely Voters

Hashmi Leads Reid by 11 points in Lt. Governor Contest; Jones Leads Miyares by 7 Points in Attorney General Race

Summary of Key Findings

1. Democrat Abigail Spanberger leads Republican Winsome Earle Sears by 12 points, 52% to 40% among Virginia likely voters; 8% remain undecided or don’t know.
2. In the Lieutenant Governor race, Democrat Ghazala Hashmi leads Republican John Reid by 11 points among Virginia likely voters, 48% to 37%; 15% say they are undecided or don’t know.
3. In the race for Attorney General, Incumbent Jason Miyares trails Jay Jones by 7 points among Virginia likely voters, 48% to 41%; 12% say they are undecided or don’t know.
4. Top of mind issues for Virginia likely voters include inflation/cost of living (21%), threats to democracy (18%), K-12 education (9%), immigration (9%), and crime (9%).
5. 48% of Virginia likely voters approve of Governor Youngkin’s job performance while 42% disapprove; 9% say they don’t know. Just 39% of Virginia likely voters approve of President Trump’s job performance while 58% disapprove; 3% say they don’t know.

Summary and Background: Early voting begins Friday, September 19th in the Commonwealth of Virginia and Election Day is nearly 7 weeks out, on Tuesday November 4th. We surveyed Virginia likely voters on their vote choice for governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, and a generic ballot for the VA House of Delegates, in addition to policy issues. Virginia tends to vote against the party in power in the White House, having reliably done so in all gubernatorial races since the 1970s with one exception, Terry McAuliffe in 2013. Our results suggest Virginia may continue this trend; however, meaningful shifts may still occur in the coming weeks as voters get to know the candidates and as the state and national context shifts. The Wason Center will survey these races two additional times before Election Day to capture those potential shifts.

Enthusiasm: Virginia likely voters are enthusiastic to vote in the upcoming elections with 87% indicating they are either very enthusiastic (56%) or somewhat enthusiastic (31%). Democratic voters have an enthusiasm advantage with 69% indicating they are very enthusiastic compared to 56% of Republicans and 42% of Independents.

Favorability ratings for candidates running for Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Attorney General: We ask Virginia likely voters whether they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the respective candidates running for statewide office in Virginia.

Looking to the candidates for Virginia governor, overall, Democratic candidate and former Congresswoman Abigail Spanberger has a +10 favorability rating (43% favorable to 33% unfavorable) with 26% indicating they have no opinion/don’t know. Current Lieutenant Governor and Republican Winsome Earle Sears has a -3 favorability rating (34% favorable to 37% unfavorable); 29% say no opinion/don’t know.

Candidates for Lieutenant Governor are not particularly well-known among Virginia likely voters. Republican candidate John Reid has a +2 favorability rating (13% favorable to 11% unfavorable), though a large percentage (75%) say they do not know enough about him to have an opinion. State Sen. Ghazala Hashmi also has a +2 favorability rating (15% favorable to 13% unfavorable), though she is also relatively unknown to Virginia likely voters with 73% saying no opinion/don’t know.

Incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares has a +8 favorability rating (26% favorable to 18% unfavorable) with 56% saying no opinion/don’t know. Democratic candidate Jay Jones has a +4 favorability rating (23% favorable to 19% unfavorable); he is slightly less well known than Miyares with 58% indicating no opinion/don’t know.

Gubernatorial Vote Choice:Among Virginia likely voters Spanberger leads Earle Sears by 12 points, 52% to 40%, with 8% saying they are undecided/don’t know.

Spanberger’s support is currently driven by Democratic voters (95%), Independents (55% to 32%), Black voters (85% to 6%), women (58% to 33%), voters aged 18-44 (56% to 36%), and voters with college degrees (60% to 30%).

Earle Sears’ support within her own party sits at 91% and she holds a lead among white voters (50% to 44%) and male voters (48% to 44%).

Lieutenant Governor Vote Choice: Virginia State Sen. Ghazala Hashmi holds an 11-point lead among Virginia likely voters against Republican John Reid (48% to 37%); 15% remain undecided/don’t know, while 1% say they will vote for someone else.

Hashmi has an advantage among Independents (+14), women (+26), Black voters (+73), and voters with a college degree (+28). Reid’s support comes primarily from fellow Republicans at 83%, white voters (+5), and male voters (+6).

Attorney General Vote Choice: Democrat Jay Jones holds a 7-point lead over Incumbent Attorney General Jason Miyares among Virginia likely voters (48% to 41%); 12% remain undecided/don’t know, while 1% say they will vote for someone else.

Jones’ lead is bolstered by support from Democrats (91%), Independents (51% to 33%), women voters (54% to 35%), Black voters (84% to 8%), younger voters (53% to 35%), and voters with college degrees (56% to 31%). Miyares has support among Republicans (90%), Male voters (47% to 41%), and white voters (50% to 39%).

Key issues: Virginia likely voters are asked which issue is top of mind when they think about voting in the upcoming elections. 21% say inflation/cost of living, followed by 18% who say threats to democracy. The next three top issues are evenly split between K-12 education (9%), immigration (9%), and crime (9%).

Top of mind issues vary by party with Republicans fairly split between inflation/cost of living (19%), immigration (18%) and crime (18%). Top issues among Democrats include threats to democracy (32%), inflation/cost of living (20%), and an even split between K-12 education (12%) and healthcare (12%). Most Independents say inflation/cost of living (25%), followed by threats to democracy (17%), and an even split between K-12 education (10%) and crime (10%).

Presidential and Gubernatorial Approval: Governor Youngkin’s job approval among Virginia likely voters is a net +6 with 48% saying they approve of his job performance while 42% disapprove; 9% say they don’t know.

Gubernatorial approval falls largely along partisan lines, with 92% of Republicans saying they approve of Governor Youngkin’s job performance, while 77% of Democrats disapprove; 45% of Independents say they approve relative to 44% who disapprove.

President Trump’s approval rating is underwater (-19) with just 39% saying they approve of the way he is handling his job as President compared to 58% who disapprove; 3% say they don’t know. The nationalization of state elections makes President Trump’s approval rating particularly relevant to Virginia elections, which provides a downward pull for Republican candidates and a boost for Democrats.

How the survey was conducted:

The results of this poll are based on 808 interviews of registered Virginia voters who are likely general election voters, including 142 on landline and 662 on cell phone, conducted Sept. 8 to Sept. 14, 2025. A likely general election voter is one who has voted in at least two of the last four general elections and indicates they plan to vote in the upcoming elections. The margin of error for the whole survey is +/-3.9% at the 95% level of confidence. This means that if 50% of respondents indicate a topline view on an issue, we can be 95% confident that the population’s view on that issue is somewhere between 46.1% and 53.9%. The margin of error for subgroups may be higher. All error margins have been adjusted to account for the survey’s design effect, which is 1.3 in this survey. The design effect is a factor representing the survey’s deviation from a simple random sample and takes into account decreases in precision due to sample design and weighting procedures. In addition to sampling error, the other potential sources of error include non-response, question wording, and interviewer error. Percentages may not equal 100 due to rounding. Five callbacks were employed in the fielding process. Live calling was conducted by Dynata interviewers. The data reported here are weighted using an iterative (raked) weighting process on region, age, race, sex, and education to reflect as closely as possible the expected makeup of the November 4, 2025 Virginia electorate. Parameters for the weights used in this survey come from the 2020 Census, the 2023 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates, and the last two gubernatorial-year exit polls.