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In one of the nation’s most closely watched campaigns, the top two candidates in Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District are in a virtual dead heat two weeks before election day, according to new survey results from the Wason Center for Civic Leadership at Christopher Newport University. Among likely voters, incumbent Republican Jan Kiggans has a narrowing 1-point lead over Democrat Missy Cotter Smasal, within the survey’s margin of error. The Wason Center survey also questioned likely voters about the U.S. Senate and presidential races.
Summary of Key Findings
- Rep. Kiggans leads Cotter Smasal by 1-point, 46% to 45% among VA-2 likely voters; 8% remain undecided in the race. Kiggans’ lead has dropped from our mid-September survey when she led Cotter Smasal by 5 points.
- Rep. Kiggans’ lead over Cotter Smasal is built on an advantage among Independents (+4), men (+14), white voters (+24) and voters without a college degree (+20); Cotter Smasal leads among women (+13), Black voters (+74), and college educated voters (+11).
- Kiggans has a +3 favorability rating (43% to 40%) and Cotter Smasal’s favorability is +4 (35% to 31%); 1 in 3 VA-2 likely voters (33%) say they have no opinion or don't know enough to say for Cotter Smasal.
- Among VA-2 likely voters, Vice President Harris leads President Trump by 2 points, while Senator Kaine holds a 7-point lead over Republican Hung Cao.
- Top of mind issues for likely voters are inflation and the economy (30%), threats to democracy (20%), immigration (13%), and abortion (10%).
- VA-2 likely voters trust Kiggans more to handle military and veteran’s issues (46% to 42%); they trust Cotter Smasal more to handle reproductive rights (49% to 35%).
For additional information or media inquiries, please contact:
Dr. Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo
Wason Center Research Director
Email: rebecca.bromleytrujillo@cnu.edu
Office: (757) 594-9140
Mobile: (269) 598-5008
Cami Castleberry
Wason Center Director
Email: cami.castleberry@cnu.edu
Office: (757) 594-8033
Mobile: (757) 897-4966