Luria holds 3-point Lead over Kiggans, within MoE

October 14, 2026

Luria holds 3-point Lead over Kiggans, within MoE

Cost of Living and Threats to Democracy Top Issues for Democrats and Independents; Immigration for Republicans

Summary of Key Findings

1. Luria leads Kiggans 46% to 43% among likely voters in Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District, within survey’s +/- 4 Margin of Error.
2. Top of mind issues for likely voters are cost of living (24%), threats to democracy (20%), and immigration (11%).
3. A plurality of voters think about their vote for Congress this fall as a vote against President Trump (43%), while 37% say Trump is not much of a factor in their vote choice, and 14% think about their vote as a vote for Trump.
4. Voters trust Luria more to handle a series of policy issues including cost of living (48% to 39%) and threats to democracy (48% to 40%), among others; they trust Kiggans more to handle crime (45% to 42%).
5. Among VA-2 likely voters Senator Mark Warner holds a 14-point lead over Republican Bert Mizusawa (51% to 37%; 11% undecided).
6. President Trump’s approval rating is underwater among VA-2 likely voters with 33% approving of his job performance while 62% disapprove; 5% say they don’t know.
7. Governor Spanberger’s approval rating among VA-2 likely voters is underwater with 42% approving of her job performance while 49% disapprove; 9% say they don’t know.

Analysis

Background: The election for Virginia’s 2nd Congressional District – one of the most competitive districts in the country – sets up a rematch between incumbent Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans and Democratic former representative Elaine Luria. Kiggans won her seat by 3-points four years ago, unseating Luria during a red wave election in 2022. Historically the president’s party loses seats in the U.S. House in midterm elections, and this race is one of many bellwethers across the country that Democrats have targeted to flip. In addition, this seat has been known to switch back and forth between the major parties, though the partisan makeup of the district leans somewhat Republican following redistricting in 2020.

Early Voting and enthusiasm: Voting is well underway and 19% of the VA-2 voters surveyed have already cast their ballots including 29% of Democrats, 16% of Independents, and 13% of Republicans.

Voters are enthusiastic about voting in the Congressional midterms with 82% indicating they are either very enthusiastic (56%) or somewhat enthusiastic (26%). Democratic voters show a higher intensity of enthusiasm with 64% saying they are very enthusiastic compared to 56% of Republicans and 50% of Independents.

Vote Choice for VA-2: With just over two weeks before Election Day, Democrat Elaine Luria holds a within the Margin of Error lead over Rep. Jen Kiggans 46% to 43% among likely voters; 10% are undecided and 2% say they will vote for someone else. The survey’s Margin of Error is +/- 4.

Luria’s support comes primarily from Democrats (92% to 1%), Independents (45% to 38%), women (57% to 36%), Black voters (84% to 7%), and college educated voters (53% to 38%).

Kiggans’ support is currently driven by Republican voters (94% to 3%), male voters (49% to 37%), white voters (58% to 35%), and voters without college degrees (49% to 38%).

A plurality of respondents think about their congressional vote choice as a vote against President Trump (43%) while 37% say he is not much of a factor in their vote choice and 14% say they think about their congressional vote as a vote for Trump. 81% of Democrats say their congressional vote is a vote against Trump compared to 43% of Independents and 5% of Republicans. 37% of Republicans say their congressional vote is a vote for Trump, compared to 7% of Independents, and 0% of Democrats.

Vote Choice for U.S. Senate: Among VA-2’s likely voters, incumbent Democrat Mark Warner leads Republican Bert Mizusawa by 14-points, 51% to 37%; 11% are undecided and 2% say they will vote for someone else.

Warner’s lead is driven primarily by Democrats (96% to 0%), Independents (51% to 30%), women (58% to 31%), Black voters (87% to 6%), and voters with college degrees (56% to 34%). Mizusawa is leading among Republicans (87% to 7%) and white voters (51% to 41%).

Key Issues: 2nd congressional district voters were asked which issue is top of mind in their vote choice for Congress this year. 24% say cost of living, 20% say issue threats to democracy, and 11% say immigration. Top of mind issues vary by party with a plurality of Republicans coalescing around immigration (24%), followed by an even split between cost of living and threats to democracy (14%). Top issues among Democrats include cost of living (32%), threats to democracy (27%), and foreign policy/war (8%). Top issues for Independents include cost of living (25%), followed by threats to democracy (22%) and taxes (10%).

Handling of policy issues: We also asked VA-2 likely voters whether they think VA-2 candidates Jen Kiggans or Elaine Luria would do a better job handling a series of policy issues. Luria comes out ahead of Kiggans on 10 of the 12 policy issues including cost of living (+9), health care (+15), immigration (+3), climate change (+24), reproductive rights (+17), threats to democracy (+8), taxes (+4), data centers (+10), foreign policy/war (+7), and veteran’s issues (+7). VA-2 likely voters are split on which candidate would handle gun policy better (44% to 44%), while they say Kiggans would do a better job handling crime (+3).

Approval of the President and Governor: President Trump is well underwater among VA-2 likely voters with 33% saying they approve of his job performance compared to 62% who disapprove; 5% say they don’t know.

Governor Spanberger is also underwater, though more narrowly than President Trump. Among VA-2 likely voters Spanberger has a 42% approval rating with 49% saying they disapprove and 9% indicating they don’t know.

How the survey was conducted:

The results of this survey are based on 702 interviews of registered second congressional district voters who are likely general election voters, including 164 on landline and 538 on cell phone, conducted Oct. 1-10, 2026. A likely general election voter is one who has voted in at least two of the last four general elections or is newly registered in the last 6 months and indicates they are enthusiastic, have thought about the election, and plan to vote in the upcoming November 3 elections. The margin of error for the whole survey is +/-4.0% at the 95% level of confidence. This means that if 50% of respondents indicate a topline view on an issue, we can be 95% confident that the population’s view on that issue is somewhere between 46% and 54%. The margin of error for subgroups may be higher. All error margins have been adjusted to account for the survey’s design effect, which is 1.2 in this survey. The design effect is a factor representing the survey’s deviation from a simple random sample and takes into account decreases in precision due to sample design and weighting procedures. In addition to sampling error, the other potential sources of error include non-response, question wording, and interviewer error. Percentages may not equal 100 due to rounding. Five callbacks were employed in the fielding process. Live calling was conducted by Dynata interviewers. The data reported here are weighted using an iterative weighting process on city/county, age, race, sex, and education to reflect as closely as possible the population of the second congressional district’s November 3, 2026 electorate. Parameters for the weights used in this survey come from the 2024 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates and the 2024 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates.